The ISM Manufacturing Index Increased to 57.3 in November
Dec. 02, 2013 - First Trust - Implications:
The ISM index, a measure of manufacturing sentiment around the country boomed in November coming in at the highest level since April 2011, easily beating consensus expectations, and rising for the sixth consecutive month. According to the Institute for Supply Management, an overall index level of 57.3 is consistent with real GDP growth of 4.7% annually. We don’t expect real GDP to grow anywhere near that pace in Q4, but we do expect much faster growth in 2014.
Consumers Doing Fine
Dec. 02, 2013 - First Trust -
According to the National Retail Federation, Thursday to Sunday holiday sales dropped 3% versus last year. No doubt, this will wake up some dozing bears. And, we are sure that when we say it’s not as bad as you think, many will argue we are perma-bulls, naïve, or downright stubborn. You can think what you want, but we don’t believe sales are falling.
First, other reports conflict with the NRF data. ShopperTrak, a Chicago-based firm that monitors sales traffic at 40,000 retail outlets and malls around the country, reported a 2.3% gain in sales for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.